Recently, Wood Mackenzie's global photovoltaic research team released its latest research report, "Global Photovoltaic Market Outlook: First Quarter of 2023".
Wood Mackenzie predicts that in 2023, the global photovoltaic installed capacity will hit a record high of more than 250GWdc, a year-on-year increase of 25%.
First of all, let's look at the Chinese photovoltaic market. The report points out that China will continue to consolidate its global leading position. In 2023, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach more than 110GWdc, accounting for up to 40% of the global total. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the domestic annual increase will remain above 100GWdc, and China's photovoltaic industry will enter the 100-gigawatt era.
Among them, with the expansion of supply chain capacity, the decline in component prices, and the trend of the first batch of large wind power photovoltaic bases being fully connected to the grid, the installed capacity of centralized photovoltaics is expected to increase significantly in 2023, and is expected to exceed 52GWdc.
In addition, the county-wide promotion policy will continue to help the development of distributed photovoltaics. However, behind the surge in new energy installed capacity, in provinces with large installed capacity such as Shandong and Hebei, problems such as the risk of wind power curtailment and power rationing and ancillary service costs have gradually emerged, which may slow down investment in the distributed field, and the distributed installed capacity in 2023 may decline.
In the international market, policy and regulatory support will become the biggest driving force for the development of the global photovoltaic market: the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will invest $369 billion in the clean energy sector. The EU REPowerEU Act sets a target of 750GWdc of photovoltaic installed capacity by 2030; Germany plans to introduce tax credits for photovoltaic, wind power and grid investment. However, as many EU member states plan to deploy renewable energy on a large scale before 2030, many mature markets in Europe are also facing increasingly serious grid bottlenecks, especially in the Dutch market.
Based on the above, Wood Mackenzie expects that global photovoltaic grid-connected installed capacity will grow at an average annual rate of 6% from 2022 to 2032. By 2028, North America's share of global photovoltaic annual new installed capacity will exceed Europe.
In the Latin American market, Chile's power grid construction lags behind the country's renewable energy development, making it difficult for the country's power system to absorb renewable energy, resulting in lower than expected renewable energy electricity prices. The Chilean National Energy Commission has launched a new round of transmission project bidding to solve this problem and put forward suggestions for improving the short-term energy market. Major markets in Latin America, such as Brazil, will continue to face similar challenges.
